Reduced emission targets are achievable without threatening the Canadian economy

Scott Harris, AFL Staff

On September 2, 2002 Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien took the podium at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa and declared his intention to ratify the Kyoto Accord.

This simple statement has set off a storm of debate across Canada, and a war of words between the Federal government and the government of Ralph Klein here in Alberta. Millions have been spent on ad campaigns, and newspapers are filled daily with stories on climate change.

At the same time, with duelling plans and a sea of conflicting statistics, Albertans seems less sure than ever about how best to deal with the problem of climate change.

At the heart of the debate is the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement signed by over 180 countries, including Canada, in 1997 at an international meeting on climate change. Kyoto sets legally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions amongst developed nations by 2012.

Under the agreement, Canada must reduce emissions to six percent below 1990 levels by 2012. However, since emissions have continued to rise since 1990 and are projected to reach 809 megatonnes by 2010 if no action is taken, the required reduction is now approximately 21% or 240 megatonnes.

Proponents point to the fact that the Canadian government has secured numerous concessions on flexibility in subsequent negotiations, including credit for carbon sinks and domestic and international emissions trading. The result is that the real level of emissions reduction required to meet our target is far less.

Critics of the plan say this level of emissions reduction is too much too quickly, and will mean job loss, less investment and make Canadian industry less competitive, especially since the United States, our major trading partner and the largest producer of emissions, has refused to ratify.

The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, an anti-Kyoto industry lobby, says that "Canada will not be able to achieve its Kyoto target without damaging our economic health and destroying jobs."

Supporters of Kyoto say such claims are nothing more than fear mongering. Dale Marshall, a researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, points out that based on figures from the provincial/federal consultation process known as the National Climate Change Process (NCCP), Kyoto will have little effect on economic growth.

"The reduction in GDP relative to business-as-usual ranges from 0 to 3 percent. Putting this into perspective is important. Since the economy is projected to grow by 30 percent between now and 2010, meeting the Kyoto targets would mean that Canada’s economy will grow instead by 27 to 30 percent."

Alberta Federation of Labour President Les Steel says that claims of major job losses resulting from ratification are intentionally misleading the public. "The studies we’ve looked at all show that over the next decade well over one million more jobs will be created in Canada, even if Kyoto is ratified."

Brian Payne of the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers union, which has called for Kyoto ratification with a Just Transition program to phase workers into new industries agrees. "It doesn’t have to be a question of jobs or the environment," says Payne. "Clearly, we can have both."

While numerous industry groups representing the oil and gas industry have joined the Klein government in condemning Kyoto, a recent poll conducted by the Financial Post showed that 57% of Canadian CEOs believe that greenhouse emissions can be cut drastically with little economic impact.

John Browne, the CEO of energy giant BP says their operations are already compliant with Kyoto. "In 1998 we set a target to reduce…greenhouse gas emissions from our operations by 10% from a 1990 baseline by the year 2010. Based on our verified greenhouse gas inventory for 2001, we have now met this target and we’ve done this seven years ahead of schedule and at no net economic cost to BP."

The Alberta Plan

In October, the Klein government released its alternative to Kyoto, called Albertans and Climate Change: Taking Action, which Alberta Environment Minister Lorne Taylor says allows Alberta to "balance the environmental and economic goals of Albertans."

The Alberta plan focuses on lowering intensity emissions, or the level of greenhouse gas emissions relative to gross domestic product, rather than reducing actual emissions. It counts on voluntary agreements with industry and the development of new technology to reduce emissions.

According to the government’s own figures, Alberta’s real emissions will continue to rise, although at a slower rate than under business as usual. Figures released in the plan show that from a 1990 baseline of 170 million tonnes of emissions, by 2020 real emission will be 218 million tonnes under the Alberta plan compared to 278 million tonnes if no action is taken.

According to the David Suzuki Foundation, this level of increase means that greenhouse gas emissions in Alberta will be 47 per cent above the Kyoto targets in 2010.

"The Alberta plan has zero credibility as an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol," says Dr. Matthew Bramley, Director of Climate Change at the Alberta-based Pembina Institute.

"Kyoto requires emission reductions while this plan would allow emissions to increase. Kyoto is legally binding while there is no way of knowing whether the targets in this plan would actually be met."

Bramley also challenges the idea contained in the plan that voluntary efforts by industry will solve the problem. Citing an October report prepared by Pembina, he says "Some Canadian companies have been quite successful in cutting emissions, but our findings show that voluntary action taken by most of Canada’s industrial firms to cut greenhouse gas emissions has been wholly inadequate."

Despite the campaign against Kyoto ratification launched by the Alberta government, Federal Environment Minister David Anderson says the government is on schedule for ratification of the protocol before Christmas.