The Nurek-Rogun Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) Project [NR-RIS]
Proposition for specific RIS research associated with the Nurek - Rogun sites:
1. Analysis of temporal and spatial seismic variations caused by Nurek reservoir in relation to regional geologic and tectonic setting and subdivision of the major fault systems. This will provide the full utilization of the Dushanbe's Earthquake catalogue ["The Catalogue of Earthquakes in the Dushanbe Vakhsh region M = 2 from 1955 till 1991"] in relation to the history of the reservoir impoundment-operations. After Nurek reservoir's analysis, the catalogue could be used to locate clusters of seismicity which would possibly be affected by the Rogun reservoir impoundment and also subdivision of the fault system in relation to new reservoir.
Application of the Risk Prediction Method for Rogun reservoir [as suggested by Q60.R40 previously applied for prediction of several RIS: Canada (LG2,3,4), Lesotho, Ertan].
This will provide initial elements for the control of the rate of the impoundment (ROI) through a mitigate design of the filling of the Rogun reservoir.
2. Assessment and analysis of seismic RIS sources associated with the stress variations caused by the past impoundment-operations for the Nurek reservoir. The evaluation of underground stresses and their migration in relation to pore pressure changes caused by reservoir impounding leads to a comprehensive stress model using poroelastic effects. The stress model will be evaluated on the base of Nurek dam past operations, taking into consideration the type of rocks and their permeability toward the existing hypocenters and then could be applied on the future impoundment of Rogun dam to predict a risk mitigating model. This research will give much more scientific strength to the predicted model explained in #1.
The elements of these outcomes will have full application to the design and impoundment of the Rogun reservoir in a iterative process of interpretation-application (IA).
The IA process include acquisition of specific data, utilization of different assessment views and procedures and application from one seismic reservoir to the other (based on the non-dimensional comparison procedure for reservoirs distinction; endorsed by the ICOLD 16th Congress/Q60.R40), i.e.: Nurek- Rogun or from Nurek to other seismic sites or areas with assessed induced seismic risk.
3. The proponent CISRG [Canadian Induced Seismicity Research Group/ an open structure for researchers interested in risk evaluation of induced seismicity] and Tadjikistan Institute will develop a joint research program [i.e.: suggested based on the above two items] and initial research could start as soon as possible [as the minimum seismic and engineering data will be provided by the Tadjik group]. This will provide an early initial start up of the joint research activity.
The above will provide elements for a joint proposal to the NATO's scientific program for request of support to organize an Advanced Research Workshop [ ARW] in Dushanbe. The NATO Science programs support joint research activities between NATO and non members partners, and include basic funding for minimum computing equipment and preliminary exchanges between the group of researchers.
On behalf of CISRG
Dr.Thomas Vladut, P.Eng.
** ICOLD Congresses references: Q -Question [each ICOLD congress address usually four specific questions open for reporting and discussion] the number indicate order of questions from the first congress to the ongoing under preparation. The last 19th Congress addressed Q.72 to Q.75. Q.60 topic of the 16th Congress held in 1988 in San Francisco was" Reservoirs and the environment". Usually each question is published as a separate volume of the ICOLD congress proceeding. R.40 indicate the number of the report in the proceedings volume.